Scenario-Based Assessment of CCUS Deployment Pathways for Carbon Emission Reduction in Iran’s Energy-Intensive Industries Using an AHP Framework

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Sobhan Herfat 1
Majid Zandi 2
1 Ph.D. Student, Renewable Energy Department, Energy Research Center, Faculty of Energy, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Renewable Energy Department, Energy Research Center, Faculty of Energy, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
20.1001.1/jgt.2026.2087200.1069
Abstract
Iran's industrial transition toward carbon emission reduction technologies, particularly Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technology systems, has been considered in recent years a strategic axis for promoting environmental sustainability and enhancing the efficiency of energy-intensive industries. This study analyzed potential deployment patterns of CCUS technologies by examining three development approaches: gradual, accelerated, and Hybrid Scenarios (HS). The gradual scenario focuses on phased development and the reduction of initial risks; the accelerated scenario seeks the rapid deployment of CCUS infrastructure through extensive investment and policy support; and the HS attempts to provide a sustainable and manageable industrial process by balancing costs, risks, and reliability. In addition, this study examines the technical, economic, and policy challenges associated with CCUS implementation and proposes implementation strategies, including the formulation of supportive policies, the development of CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, technological capacity building, and the strengthening of public–private partnerships. To evaluate the different pathways, an AHP-based hierarchical model was used to analyze the performance of CCUS applications in power plants, industrial facilities, and refineries using six main indicators: cost, technological attractiveness, technological capability, cultural index, passive defense, and environmental criteria. The results show that the CCUS option achieves the highest scores across all three applications and represents the most efficient option for emission reduction and economic value creation. These findings reinforce the importance of the planned development of CCUS in the country’s energy landscape and highlight the need to establish support mechanisms for its commercialization and the expansion of industrial applications.
Keywords
CCUS
Industrial transition
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Deployment pathways
Subjects

Article Title Persian

ارزیابی سناریوهای به‌کارگیری واحدهای CCUS برای کاهش انتشار کربن در صنایع انرژی‌بر ایران با استفاده از روش AHP

Authors Persian

سبحان حرفت 1
مجید زندی 2
1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، مرکز پژوهشی انرژی، دانشکده انرژی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار، گروه انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، مرکز پژوهشی انرژی، دانشکده انرژی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
Abstract Persian

گذار صنعتی ایران به‌سوی فناوری‌های کاهش انتشار کربن، به‌ویژه سامانه‌های جذب، استفاده و ذخیره‌سازی کربن (CCUS)، در سال‌های اخیر به‌عنوان یکی از محورهای راهبردی برای ارتقای پایداری محیط‌زیست و بهبود کارایی صنایع انرژی‌بر مطرح شده است. این مطالعه الگوهای محتمل برای استقرار واحدهای CCUS را در قالب سه سناریوی تدریجی، سریع و ترکیبی بررسی می‌کند. در سناریوی تدریجی، توسعه مرحله‌ای، کاهش ریسک‌های اولیه و انطباق تدریجی با الزامات فنی و اقتصادی مدنظر است. سناریوی سریع بر استقرار فوری زیرساخت‌های CCUS از طریق سرمایه‌گذاری گسترده، مشوق‌های مالی و حمایت‌های سیاستی متمرکز است. سناریوی ترکیبی نیز با ایجاد توازن میان هزینه‌ها، ریسک‌ها، زمان‌بندی و قابلیت اطمینان، دستیابی به فرآیندی صنعتی پایدار، مقبول و قابل مدیریت را دنبال می‌کند. در ادامه، چالش‌های فنی، اقتصادی، نهادی و سیاستی اجرای واحدهای CCUS تحلیل شده و راهبردهایی مانند تدوین سیاست‌های حمایتی هدفمند، توسعه زیرساخت یکپارچه حمل‌ونقل و ذخیره‌سازی دی‌اکسید کربن، ارتقای ظرفیت فناورانه داخلی، انتقال دانش فنی و تقویت همکاری میان دولت، بخش خصوصی و نهادهای پژوهشی پیشنهاد می‌شود. برای ارزیابی مسیرهای مختلف، از یک مدل سلسله‌مراتبی مبتنی بر AHP استفاده شده است تا عملکرد واحدهای CCUS در نیروگاه‌ها، صنایع انرژی‌بر و پالایشگاه‌ها بر پایه شش شاخص هزینه، جذابیت فناوری، توانمندی فناورانه، شاخص فرهنگی، الزامات پدافند غیرعامل و معیارهای محیط‌زیستی سنجیده شود.

Keywords Persian

سامانه‌های جذب
استفاده و ذخیره‌سازی کربن
گذار صنعتی
تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی (AHP)
الگوهای استقرار
Adetoye, A. M., Okojie, L. O., & Akerele, D. ,2018. Forest carbon sequestration supply function for African countries: An econometric modelling approach. Forest Policy and Economics, 90, 59–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.01.007
Al Baroudi, H., Wada, R., Ozaki, M., Patchigolla, K., Iwatomi, M., Murayama, K., Otaki, T., & Baroudi, A. ,2021. Experimental investigation of liquid CO2 discharge from the emergency release system’s coupler of a loading arm.
Alizadeh, S. M., Khalili, Y., & Ahmadi, M. ,2024. Comprehensive Review of Carbon Capture and Storage Integration in Hydrogen Production: Opportunities, Challenges, and Future Perspectives. Energies, 17(21), 5330. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17215330
Astuti, A. R. A., Wenten, I. G., Ariono, D., Sasongko, D., Saputera, W. H., & Khoiruddin, K. ,2024. Advances in Carbon Control Technologies for Flue Gas Cleaning. In Separation and Purification Reviews. Taylor and Francis Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1080/15422119.2024.2328080
Bachu, S.,2008. CO2 storage in geological media: Role, means, status and barriers to deployment. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 34(2), 254–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecs.2007.10.001
Besong, M. T., Maroto-Valer, M. M., & Finn, A. J. ,2013. Study of design parameters affecting the performance of CO2 purification units in oxy-fuel combustion. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 12, 441–449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2012.11.016
Boon, J., Spallina, V., van Delft, Y., & van Sint Annaland, M. ,2016. Comparison of the efficiency of carbon dioxide capture by sorption-enhanced water-gas shift and palladium-based membranes for power and hydrogen production. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 50, 121–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.04.033
Bu, P., & Qiu, Y. ,2025. Simulation, and comparative energy, exergy, economic, and environmental analyses of utilizing different solvents for post-combustion CO2 capture from flue gases. Applied Thermal Engineering, 269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2025.125923
Cao, C., Liu, H., Hou, Z., Mehmood, F., Liao, J., & Feng, W. ,2020. A review of CO2 storage in view of safety and cost-effectiveness. In Energies .Vol. 13, Number 3. MDPI AG. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13030600
Damiani, D., Litynski, J. T., McIlvried, H. G., Vikara, D. M., & Srivastava, R. D. ,2012. The US Department of Energy’s R&D program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through beneficial uses of carbon dioxide. Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 2(1), 9–16. https://doi.org/10.1002/ghg
Gabruś, E., Wojtacha-Rychter, K., Aleksandrzak, T., Smoliński, A., & Król, M. ,2021. The feasibility of CO2 emission reduction by adsorptive storage on Polish hard coals in the Upper Silesia Coal Basin: An experimental and modeling study of equilibrium, kinetics and thermodynamics. Science of the Total Environment, 796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149064
Godec, M., Carpenter, S., & Coddington, K. ,2017. Evaluation of Technology and Policy Issues Associated with the Storage of Carbon Dioxide via Enhanced Oil Recovery in Determining the Potential for Carbon Negative Oil. Energy Procedia, 114, 6563–6578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.1795
https://www.superdecisions.com.
IEA. 2024. CO2 emissions by sector, Iran, 2023. IEA.
IEA. ,2019. Putting CO2 to Use Creating value from emissions.
IEA. ,2022. Operating and planned facilities with CO2 capture by application.
IEA., 2023. Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure  Projects Database.
IEA.,2024. Operating and planned CO2 capture capacity by region, Q1 2024 vs. 2030.
Kang, J.-N., Wei, Y.-M., Liu, L., & Wang, J.-W. ,2021. Observing technology reserves of carbon capture and storage via patent data: Paving the way for carbon neutral. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 171, 120933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120933
Keith, D. W., Holmes, G., St. Angelo, D., & Heidel, K. ,2018. A Process for Capturing CO2 from the Atmosphere. Joule, 2(8), 1573–1594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2018.05.006
Khan, C., Pearce, J. K., Golding, S. D., Rudolph, V., & Underschultz, J. R. ,2021. Carbon storage potential of north american oil & gas produced water injection with surface dissolution. Geosciences (Switzerland), 11(3), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11030123
Lau, H. C., Ramakrishna, S., Zhang, K., & Radhamani, A. V. ,2021. The Role of Carbon Capture and Storage in the Energy Transition. Energy & Fuels, 35(9), 7364–7386. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.1c00032
Lu, H., Ma, X., Huang, K., Fu, L., & Azimi, M. ,2020. Carbon dioxide transport via pipelines: A systematic review. In Journal of Cleaner Production. Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121994
Mukherjee, A., Okolie, J. A., Abdelrasoul, A., Niu, C., & Dalai, A. K. ,2019. Review of post-combustion carbon dioxide capture technologies using activated carbon. In Journal of Environmental Sciences (China).Vol. 83, pp. 46–63. Chinese Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jes.2019.03.014
Nagireddi, S., Agarwal, J. R., & Vedapuri, D. ,2024. Carbon Dioxide Capture, Utilization, and Sequestration: Current Status, Challenges, and Future Prospects for Global Decarbonization. ACS Engineering Au, 4(1), 22–48. https://doi.org/10.1021/acsengineeringau.3c00049
Nath, F., Mahmood, M. N., & Yousuf, N. ,2024. Recent advances in CCUS: A critical review on technologies, regulatory aspects and economics. Geoenergy Science and Engineering, 238, 212726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoen.2024.212726
Normann, F., Andersson, K., Leckner, B., & Johnsson, F. ,2009. Emission control of nitrogen oxides in the oxy-fuel process. In Progress in Energy and Combustion Science .Vol. 35, Number 5, pp. 385–397. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecs.2009.04.002
Our World in Data. 2025, November 13. Annual CO2 emissions by world region. Global Carbon Budget.
Praetorius, B., & Schumacher, K. , 2009. Greenhouse gas mitigation in a carbon constrained world: The role of carbon capture and storage. Energy Policy, 37(12), 5081–5093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.018
Ringrose, P. S. ,2014. Keynote speech - Large-scale CO2 storage - How do we make it work? 4th EAGE CO2 Geological Storage Workshop 2014: Demonstrating Storage Integrity and Building Confidence in CCS, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.20140067
Roussanaly, S., Berghout, N., Fout, T., Garcia, M., Gardarsdottir, S., Nazir, S. M., Ramirez, A., & Rubin, E. S. ,2021. Towards improved cost evaluation of Carbon Capture and Storage from industry. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 106, 103263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2021.103263
Shi, S., & Hu, Y. H. ,2025. A Landmark Year for Climate Change and Global Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Annual Progress Review. Energy Science & Engineering, 13(6), 3448–3458. https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.70091
Simonsen, K. R., Hansen, D. S., & Pedersen, S. ,2024. Challenges in CO2 transportation: Trends and perspectives. In Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (Vol. 191). Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.114149
Sun, M., Wang, X., Gao, F., Xu, M., Fan, W., Xu, B., & Sun, D. ,2023. Synthesis strategies of metal-organic frameworks for CO2 capture. In Microstructures .Vol. 3, Number 4. OAE Publishing Inc. https://doi.org/10.20517/microstructures.2023.32
Vaddeboina, S., & Puttapati, S. K. ,2024. Carbon Dioxide Utilization Techniques for Producing Transportation Fuels. In From Waste to Wealth .pp. 401–436. Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-7552-5_19
Wifling, M. ,2020. Financial precautions, carbon dioxide leakage, and the European Directive 2009/31/EC on carbon capture and storage (CCS). Climatic Change, 163(2), 787–806. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02904-1
Wilberforce, T., Olabi, A. G., Sayed, E. T., Elsaid, K., & Abdelkareem, M. A. ,2021. Progress in carbon capture technologies. Science of The Total Environment, 761, 143203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143203
Wu, Y., Carroll, J. J., Zhu, W., Li, Q., Song, R., Liu, X., Liu, G., & Sun, Y. ,2016. Monitoring of Carbon Dioxide Geological Utilization and Storage in China: A Review. https://www.tarjomano.com
Yadav, S., & Mondal, S. S. ,2022. A review on the progress and prospects of oxy-fuel carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology. In Fuel .Vol. 308. Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fuel.2021.122057
Zhao, J., Zheng, J., Ren, L., Lin, R., & Zhou, B. ,2024. A review on geological storage of marine carbon dioxide: Challenges and prospects. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2024.106757
Zhou, X., Wu, Y. S., Chen, H., Elsayed, M., Yu, W., Zhao, X., Murtaza, M., Shahzad Kamal, M., Zafar Khan, S., Al-Abdrabalnabi, R., & Ren, B. , 2024. Review of Carbon dioxide utilization and sequestration in depleted oil reservoirs. In Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews . Vol. 202. Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2024.114646